tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 816 Southwest BNA 10:13 BHM 11:12 5% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 3966 Southwest BNA 20:50 BHM 21:50 9% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 6h 00m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164 3h 39m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012 5h 52m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484 5h 28m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163 5h 22m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → BHM 21:38DL 2257 5h 07m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 11:56 → MDW 13:37WN 573 3h 11m Chicago MDW 16:48 → BHM 18:31WN 1548 6h 35m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202 5h 07m 97% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON