Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2509 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 2509 BNA 07:30 → BOS 11:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 406 BNA 16:17 → BOS 20:01 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2509 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:30	BOS 11:11	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 2957 Southwest	BNA 10:09	BOS 13:42	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 1806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 09:09	BOS 12:52	19%	5%	1.0%	67%
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BNA 11:15	BOS 14:59	25%	8%	0.8%	79%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BNA 19:31	BOS 23:28	28%	9%	1.0%	64%
WN 392 Southwest	BNA 18:44	BOS 22:17	34%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 671 Southwest	BNA 13:39	BOS 17:12	38%	13%	0.9%	no record
B6 406 JetBlue	BNA 16:17	BOS 20:01	40%	19%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON