Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3413 at 12:26, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3413 Southwest	BNA 12:26	BUF 15:25	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	5h 01m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → BUF 14:56DL 2266	6h 24m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:03 → LGA 12:30DL 5638 · flown by Republic	3h 48m New York	LGA 16:18 → BUF 17:45DL 5792 · flown by Republic	7h 42m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:08 → BWI 17:07WN 462	2h 33m Baltimore	BWI 19:40 → BUF 21:01WN 940	5h 53m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:31 → JFK 10:58DL 4916 · flown by Endeavor	2h 26m New York	JFK 13:24 → BUF 14:41DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	6h 10m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → BUF 17:56DL 2050	6h 02m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	7h 21m	100%	88%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 46m Dulles	IAD 13:03 → BUF 14:38UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 08m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON