tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 458 Southwest BNA 13:49 BUR 16:26 14% 3% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:23 → PHX 08:10WN 635 3h 43m Phoenix PHX 11:53 → BUR 13:18WN 3174 8h 55m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 07:57 → DEN 09:46WN 496 3h 26m Denver DEN 13:12 → BUR 14:47WN 1465 8h 50m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 14:20 → PHX 15:55WN 639 3h 29m Phoenix PHX 19:24 → BUR 20:49WN 3177 8h 29m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 45m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 11:56 → MDW 13:37WN 573 3h 31m Chicago MDW 17:08 → BUR 19:37WN 1241 9h 41m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:04 → SFO 11:02UA 626 2h 48m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 9h 13m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → BUR 11:54AA 1208 7h 53m 97% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:26 → DEN 17:15WN 500 2h 41m Denver DEN 19:56 → BUR 21:28WN 9003 8h 02m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON