Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1463 BNA 06:39 → BWI 09:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3844 BNA 17:21 → BWI 20:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1463 Southwest	BNA 06:39	BWI 09:34	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3938 Southwest	BNA 08:47	BWI 11:41	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 460 Southwest	BNA 11:13	BWI 14:07	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 462 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:14	BWI 17:08	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 3844 Southwest	BNA 17:21	BWI 20:15	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON