Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 966 BNA 08:23 → CLT 10:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 519 BNA 18:30 → CLT 21:02 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 966 American Flight history →	BNA 08:23	CLT 10:52	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 2940 American	BNA 06:27	CLT 08:53	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3328 American Flight history →	BNA 11:55	CLT 14:22	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
WN 3535 Southwest	BNA 10:16	CLT 12:34	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1108 American	BNA 13:35	CLT 16:00	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1136 American	BNA 15:51	CLT 18:19	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4136 Southwest	BNA 18:56	CLT 21:15	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 519 American Flight history →	BNA 18:30	CLT 21:02	13%	3%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON