Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 482 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 482 BNA 06:25 → DAL 08:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3065 BNA 18:37 → DAL 20:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 482 Southwest	BNA 06:25	DAL 08:22	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 973 Southwest	BNA 08:19	DAL 10:10	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4814 Southwest	BNA 11:36	DAL 13:26	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 485 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:43	DAL 14:35	10%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 488 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:36	DAL 22:27	12%	3%	0.7%	48%
WN 486 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:55	DAL 16:47	12%	3%	0.8%	76%
WN 3065 Southwest	BNA 18:37	DAL 20:29	15%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON