Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3039 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3039 BNA 05:58 → DCA 08:47 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3765 BNA 16:45 → DCA 19:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3039 Southwest	BNA 05:58	DCA 08:47	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
YX 4766 Republic	BNA 06:08	DCA 09:18	6%	2%	1.1%	no record
YX 5835 Republic	BNA 06:37	DCA 09:44	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3992 Southwest	BNA 21:06	DCA 23:55	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 490 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 09:17	DCA 12:06	11%	3%	0.8%	71%
AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 15:20	DCA 18:31	13%	5%	1.0%	73%
YX 5857 Republic	BNA 11:43	DCA 14:44	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 4993 Southwest	BNA 13:01	DCA 15:49	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 5861 Republic	BNA 17:02	DCA 20:05	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 10:41	DCA 13:44	16%	8%	2.0%	60%
AA 1163 American Flight history →	BNA 19:38	DCA 22:29	17%	5%	1.5%	66%
WN 4181 Southwest	BNA 15:41	DCA 18:30	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3765 Envoy	BNA 16:45	DCA 19:54	18%	5%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON