Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 496 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 496 BNA 07:57 → DEN 09:46 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 2201 BNA 17:30 → DEN 19:36 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 496 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 07:57	DEN 09:46	3%	1%	0.4%	82%
WN 495 Southwest	BNA 07:13	DEN 08:54	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1716 United Flight history →	BNA 08:14	DEN 10:20	7%	2%	0.5%	89%
WN 497 Southwest	BNA 13:31	DEN 15:19	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 499 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:38	DEN 22:28	10%	2%	0.5%	66%
UA 393 United	BNA 19:43	DEN 21:27	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 500 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:26	DEN 17:15	13%	2%	0.4%	65%
F9 1401 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:02	DEN 17:03	13%	4%	0.8%	77%
UA 1766 United Flight history →	BNA 14:29	DEN 16:29	15%	3%	0.5%	80%
WN 4756 Southwest	BNA 17:56	DEN 19:46	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2201 United Flight history →	BNA 17:30	DEN 19:36	16%	3%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON