Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2583 BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1181 BNA 16:57 → DFW 19:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2583 American Flight history →	BNA 07:04	DFW 09:18	7%	3%	1.0%	83%
AA 849 American	BNA 05:59	DFW 08:02	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 2787 American Flight history →	BNA 06:01	DFW 08:20	7%	3%	1.1%	87%
AA 2510 American	BNA 09:04	DFW 11:12	9%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1103 American Flight history →	BNA 10:06	DFW 12:09	10%	4%	1.0%	84%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	BNA 12:47	DFW 14:57	11%	4%	1.1%	79%
AA 1109 American	BNA 18:37	DFW 20:53	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 1084 American	BNA 18:39	DFW 20:58	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 9795 American	BNA 16:33	DFW 18:52	16%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 1181 American	BNA 16:57	DFW 19:15	17%	4%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON