Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 258 Southwest	BNA 08:30	ECP 09:58	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1570 Southwest	BNA 14:15	ECP 15:40	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 30m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	4h 06m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 18m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053	4h 29m	96%	89%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:46 → ECP 11:52AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	5h 51m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	BNA 12:43 → DAL 14:35WN 485	2h 17m Dallas	DAL 16:52 → ECP 18:50WN 311	6h 07m	100%	85%
American Details →	BNA 11:55 → CLT 14:22AA 3328	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 16:47 → ECP 17:31AA 5297 · flown by PSA	5h 36m	98%	84%
United Details →	BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339	46m Houston	IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:01UA 4043 · flown by Mesa	4h 53m	77%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON