Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 216 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 2–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 216 BNA 05:59 → EWR 09:21 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2677 BNA 15:45 → EWR 19:04 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 216 United	BNA 05:59	EWR 09:21	2%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3408 Republic	BNA 07:17	EWR 10:53	2%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2485 United	BNA 09:31	EWR 12:57	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2174 United Flight history →	BNA 13:15	EWR 16:37	14%	5%	0.7%	74%
UA 499 United Flight history →	BNA 19:25	EWR 22:48	19%	5%	0.7%	58%
UA 2677 United	BNA 15:45	EWR 19:04	22%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON