Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 541 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 541 BNA 07:08 → FLL 10:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2582 BNA 14:27 → FLL 17:41 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 541 Southwest	BNA 07:08	FLL 10:23	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1317 Southwest	BNA 14:30	FLL 17:51	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 863 Southwest	BNA 17:08	FLL 20:21	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
B6 2482 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 07:50	FLL 11:04	16%	5%	1.7%	95%worse than usual
B6 2582 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 14:27	FLL 17:41	21%	9%	1.7%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON