Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3499 BNA 06:54 → HOU 08:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 526 BNA 12:39 → HOU 14:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3499 Southwest	BNA 06:54	HOU 08:58	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4081 Southwest	BNA 09:23	HOU 11:27	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2961 Southwest	BNA 20:57	HOU 23:02	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 585 Southwest	BNA 19:19	HOU 21:23	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 527 Southwest	BNA 15:51	HOU 17:55	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 526 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:39	HOU 14:43	14%	3%	0.6%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON