Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2746 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2746 BNA 06:29 → LGA 09:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1649 BNA 16:53 → LGA 20:12 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2746 Southwest	BNA 06:29	LGA 09:41	8%	1%	1.8%	no record
DL 1071 Delta	BNA 06:02	LGA 09:20	8%	2%	2.3%	no record
AA 3314 American	BNA 06:12	LGA 09:54	12%	4%	2.0%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 09:02	LGA 12:29	16%	5%	3.7%	90%
WN 551 Southwest	BNA 09:47	LGA 12:59	17%	4%	3.3%	no record
YX 4622 Republic	BNA 10:40	LGA 14:18	23%	12%	4.3%	no record
WN 719 Southwest	BNA 19:55	LGA 23:10	25%	8%	0.9%	no record
YX 5617 Republic	BNA 12:35	LGA 16:02	27%	12%	3.2%	no record
AA 4411 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 13:43	LGA 17:10	31%	13%	4.0%	86%worse than usual
WN 3644 Southwest	BNA 13:46	LGA 16:58	33%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:36	LGA 21:14	36%	14%	2.9%	67%
DL 1649 Delta	BNA 16:53	LGA 20:12	39%	15%	2.3%	no record
DL 4638 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 06:00	LGA 09:32	25%	10%	0.0%	75%
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 12:40	LGA 16:17	27%	12%	5.5%	73%
DL 5022 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	LGA 23:31	34%	16%	20.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON