Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1390 Southwest	BNA 17:40	LGB 20:13	16%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 06:23 → PHX 08:10WN 635	3h 53m Phoenix	PHX 12:03 → LGB 13:26WN 3213	9h 03m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:20 → PHX 15:55WN 639	3h 09m Phoenix	PHX 19:04 → LGB 20:28WN 550	8h 08m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 24m	92%	83%
Southwest Details →	BNA 15:26 → DEN 17:15WN 500	2h 29m Denver	DEN 19:44 → LGB 21:03WN 1261	7h 37m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:10 → SLC 19:48DL 2205	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:44 → LGB 21:43DL 1167	6h 33m	88%	78%
Alaska Details →	BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → LGB 14:11AS 717	9h 09m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON