Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1014 at 05:45 is the safest bet, <1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1014 BNA 05:45 → MCO 08:36 · <1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3560 BNA 17:05 → MCO 20:19 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1014 Southwest	BNA 05:45	MCO 08:36	<1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1252 Southwest	BNA 07:46	MCO 10:39	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1291 Southwest	BNA 11:26	MCO 14:19	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 1286 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 09:40	MCO 12:47	10%	5%	0.8%	91%
WN 494 Southwest	BNA 16:19	MCO 19:12	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 569 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:27	MCO 22:20	11%	4%	0.7%	52%
WN 564 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:34	MCO 16:27	11%	3%	0.9%	98%
F9 3560 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 17:05	MCO 20:19	14%	6%	1.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON