Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 572 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 572 BNA 06:08 → MDW 07:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 576 BNA 18:40 → MDW 20:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 572 Southwest	BNA 06:08	MDW 07:48	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 4895 Southwest	BNA 09:19	MDW 10:59	6%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 573 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:56	MDW 13:37	9%	2%	0.7%	98%
WN 4549 Southwest	BNA 20:46	MDW 22:28	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 575 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:36	MDW 17:08	15%	3%	0.7%	44%
WN 576 Southwest	BNA 18:40	MDW 20:21	15%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON