tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 480 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 480 Southwest BNA 08:04 MEM 09:07 5% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 3758 Southwest BNA 21:05 MEM 22:07 15% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 14m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071 4h 17m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733 4h 26m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:36 → MDW 17:08WN 575 3h 33m Chicago MDW 20:41 → MEM 22:18WN 4975 6h 42m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681 6h 15m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 12:39 → HOU 14:43WN 526 1h 25m Houston HOU 16:08 → MEM 17:46WN 596 5h 07m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 3h 19m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 6h 58m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON