Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1342 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1342 BNA 05:39 → MIA 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest MQ 4211 BNA 17:38 → MIA 21:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1342 American Flight history →	BNA 05:39	MIA 09:04	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
MQ 4123 Envoy	BNA 10:24	MIA 13:54	13%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 1600 Southwest	BNA 12:14	MIA 15:31	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3418 Southwest	BNA 16:51	MIA 20:06	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4211 Envoy	BNA 17:38	MIA 21:11	24%	8%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON