tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 853 at 12:28, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 853 Southwest BNA 12:28 OMA 14:22 6% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 07:57 → DEN 09:46WN 496 1h 26m Denver DEN 11:12 → OMA 13:42WN 4824 5h 45m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125 6h 27m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 49m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → OMA 09:28DL 2632 4h 18m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 29m Minneapolis MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Chicago ORD 08:21 → OMA 10:11AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 5h 01m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 2h 59m Detroit DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 12:43 → DAL 14:35WN 485 3h 04m Dallas DAL 17:39 → OMA 19:35WN 1077 6h 52m 100% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:23 → ORD 20:15UA 1127 58m Chicago ORD 21:13 → OMA 22:44UA 2336 4h 21m 74% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON