Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:23, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1060 Southwest	BNA 16:52	ONT 19:13	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173	6h 41m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:10 → SLC 19:48DL 2205	3h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	8h 38m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:23 → PHX 08:10WN 635	1h 06m Phoenix	PHX 09:16 → ONT 10:35WN 3236	6h 12m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 28m	99%	90%
American Details →	BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635	8h 28m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	BNA 07:57 → DEN 09:46WN 496	3h 15m Denver	DEN 13:01 → ONT 14:27WN 1596	8h 30m	100%	88%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:42 → ONT 12:01AA 2956	8h 00m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	BNA 11:56 → MDW 13:37WN 573	3h 57m Chicago	MDW 17:34 → ONT 19:57WN 2784	10h 01m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON