Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 529 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 529 BNA 05:49 → ORD 07:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1127 BNA 18:23 → ORD 20:15 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 529 United	BNA 05:49	ORD 07:45	9%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 4964 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 05:09	ORD 07:04	13%	5%	2.9%	71%
AA 1105 American	BNA 06:52	ORD 08:51	13%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 2500 American Flight history →	BNA 09:00	ORD 10:59	14%	6%	1.3%	54%
UA 2465 United Flight history →	BNA 07:40	ORD 09:41	16%	6%	1.2%	83%
UA 691 United	BNA 09:35	ORD 11:30	17%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 398 United	BNA 10:26	ORD 12:25	17%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 1616 United Flight history →	BNA 12:49	ORD 14:50	19%	9%	1.1%	81%
AA 6273 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 10:45	ORD 12:35	23%	9%	2.0%	56%
MQ 3679 Envoy	BNA 19:49	ORD 21:47	23%	8%	3.4%	no record
YX 3424 Republic	BNA 15:03	ORD 17:06	24%	11%	2.5%	no record
AA 2126 American	BNA 17:52	ORD 19:56	26%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 1884 United Flight history →	BNA 16:59	ORD 19:00	29%	10%	1.2%	57%
AA 2112 American	BNA 16:03	ORD 18:00	33%	11%	1.5%	no record
UA 1127 United Flight history →	BNA 18:23	ORD 20:15	34%	10%	1.1%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON