Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1004 at 14:39, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1004 Southwest	BNA 14:39	ORF 17:33	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	5h 18m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ORF 14:15DL 2925	6h 57m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 10:02 → ORF 11:59DL 3066	4h 54m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:14 → BWI 17:08WN 462	2h 39m Baltimore	BWI 19:47 → ORF 20:47WN 4920	5h 33m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	5h 02m	99%	90%
American Details →	BNA 08:43 → JFK 12:19AA 4712 · flown by Republic	3h 11m New York	JFK 15:30 → ORF 17:09AA 4359 · flown by Republic	7h 26m	100%	89%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 12:09 → ORF 15:27UA 2807	6h 47m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	BNA 15:36 → MDW 17:08WN 575	1h 39m Chicago	MDW 18:47 → ORF 21:58WN 1152	5h 22m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON