Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1477 Alaska	BNA 17:13	PDX 20:03	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661	8h 39m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 32m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 48m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:10 → SLC 19:48DL 2205	3h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	8h 34m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 35m	96%	89%
United Details →	BNA 08:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1716	3h 07m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	8h 59m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:23 → PHX 08:10WN 635	1h 46m Phoenix	PHX 09:56 → PDX 12:38WN 1303	8h 15m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 02m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON