Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2809 BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 857 BNA 18:47 → PHL 21:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2809 American Flight history →	BNA 06:28	PHL 09:39	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 706 Southwest	BNA 10:07	PHL 13:17	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 2605 American Flight history →	BNA 10:27	PHL 13:46	8%	2%	0.6%	75%
AA 3249 American	BNA 13:27	PHL 16:46	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5580 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 19:28	PHL 22:44	11%	3%	1.2%	65%
AA 868 American Flight history →	BNA 16:07	PHL 19:26	13%	3%	0.7%	62%
WN 857 Southwest	BNA 18:47	PHL 21:57	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON