Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 635 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 635 BNA 06:23 → PHX 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 642 BNA 16:47 → PHX 18:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 635 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:23	PHX 08:10	4%	1%	0.4%	88%
WN 1170 Southwest	BNA 08:19	PHX 09:59	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1869 Southwest	BNA 11:13	PHX 12:54	9%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 3086 American Flight history →	BNA 14:25	PHX 16:22	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 639 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:20	PHX 15:55	11%	2%	0.4%	59%
WN 642 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:47	PHX 18:20	15%	3%	0.5%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON