Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2592 at 11:02, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2592 Southwest	BNA 11:02	PVD 14:30	8%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	6h 19m	99%	89%
American Details →	BNA 15:20 → DCA 18:31AA 4374 · flown by Republic	3h 47m Washington	DCA 22:18 → PVD 23:53AA 2552	7h 33m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064	6h 26m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	5h 41m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:14 → BWI 17:08WN 462	2h 39m Baltimore	BWI 19:47 → PVD 21:07WN 582	5h 53m	100%	84%
American Details →	BNA 08:23 → CLT 10:52AA 966	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 13:50 → PVD 16:04AA 2679	6h 41m	98%	84%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 18m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → PVD 14:05UA 6262 · flown by Mesa	4h 35m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 36m Detroit	DTW 10:22 → PVD 12:22DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON