tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3239 at 10:48, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3239 Southwest BNA 10:48 PWM 14:25 5% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 14:14 → BWI 17:08WN 462 2h 31m Baltimore BWI 19:39 → PWM 21:16WN 1053 6h 02m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 14m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 4h 50m 97% 91%
AmericanDetails → BNA 09:00 → ORD 10:59AA 2500 2h 04m Chicago ORD 13:03 → PWM 16:42AA 4741 · flown by Republic 6h 42m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 5h 42m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 1h 19m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 4h 55m 97% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:36 → MDW 17:08WN 575 1h 59m Chicago MDW 19:07 → PWM 22:23WN 300 5h 47m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → PWM 23:14DL 2138 7h 23m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465 1h 19m Chicago ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804 5h 51m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BNA 18:27 → JFK 22:09DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor 5h 25m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON