Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1211 BNA 10:15 → RDU 12:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 655 BNA 18:47 → RDU 21:24 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1211 Southwest	BNA 10:15	RDU 12:51	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 4649 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 12:06	RDU 14:41	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
YX 4368 Republic	BNA 16:44	RDU 19:38	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1006 Southwest	BNA 15:42	RDU 18:18	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 655 Southwest	BNA 18:47	RDU 21:24	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 09:35	RDU 12:20	18%	9%	1.6%	82%
DL 5153 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	RDU 22:46	28%	15%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON