Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2519 at 15:43, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2519 Southwest	BNA 15:43	RIC 18:26	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	4h 38m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:07DL 3152	5h 35m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	5h 35m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → RIC 13:33DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor	6h 33m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682	1h 39m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:07DL 3073	5h 01m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 18:32 → RIC 20:15DL 1263	6h 37m	99%	90%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → RIC 14:36AA 1915	7h 35m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:31 → JFK 10:58DL 4916 · flown by Endeavor	3h 47m New York	JFK 14:45 → RIC 16:12DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor	7h 41m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON