Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3960 at 10:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3960 Southwest	BNA 10:14	SDF 12:14	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4997 Southwest	BNA 18:40	SDF 20:40	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 33m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374	4h 19m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:14 → BWI 17:08WN 462	2h 34m Baltimore	BWI 19:42 → SDF 21:24WN 439	6h 10m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	4h 54m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → SDF 21:36DL 2842	5h 45m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	6h 09m	97%	84%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	5h 47m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	BNA 15:36 → MDW 17:08WN 575	1h 12m Chicago	MDW 18:20 → SDF 20:35WN 2824	3h 59m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON