Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 626 BNA 08:04 → SFO 11:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 276 BNA 19:00 → SFO 21:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 626 United Flight history →	BNA 08:04	SFO 11:02	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 581 United	BNA 14:58	SFO 17:59	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2300 Southwest	BNA 13:54	SFO 16:18	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 276 United	BNA 19:00	SFO 21:34	18%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON