tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:59, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2557 Southwest BNA 19:17 SJC 21:45 15% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:23 → PHX 08:10WN 635 1h 14m Phoenix PHX 09:24 → SJC 11:22WN 3581 6h 59m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 20m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 01m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 58m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 14:20 → PHX 15:55WN 639 3h 47m Phoenix PHX 19:42 → SJC 21:41WN 427 9h 21m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 8h 50m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:15DL 1420 9h 16m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:36 → MDW 17:08WN 575 3h 21m Chicago MDW 20:29 → SJC 22:57WN 3810 9h 21m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281 50m Seattle SEA 10:54 → SJC 12:59AS 658 7h 57m 73% 57%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 7h 44m 68% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON