tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 676 Southwest BNA 15:45 SMF 18:18 11% 3% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 17:10 → SLC 19:48DL 2205 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 8h 34m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 7h 50m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 10h 02m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:23 → PHX 08:10WN 635 1h 07m Phoenix PHX 09:17 → SMF 11:18WN 3272 6h 55m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:39 → SMF 13:46AA 2078 8h 42m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1716 3h 15m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:11UA 662 8h 57m 99% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON