Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3642 BNA 09:18 → TPA 12:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3639 BNA 14:28 → TPA 17:31 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3642 Envoy	BNA 09:18	TPA 12:20	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 1178 Southwest	BNA 12:03	TPA 14:53	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 4445 Southwest	BNA 19:26	TPA 22:19	14%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 1173 Southwest	BNA 14:13	TPA 17:01	16%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 4090 Southwest	BNA 16:14	TPA 19:04	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	BNA 14:28	TPA 17:31	18%	5%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON