tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 693 Southwest BNA 10:14 TYS 12:10 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 1515 Southwest BNA 17:01 TYS 18:57 11% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 3h 52m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 08:32 → TYS 09:35DL 1817 3h 25m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 4h 00m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → TYS 14:06AA 2544 6h 02m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 5h 22m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 14:14 → BWI 17:08WN 462 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 18:13 → TYS 19:48WN 606 4h 34m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:06 → DFW 12:09AA 1103 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:32 → TYS 16:56AA 2550 5h 50m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:23 → CLT 10:52AA 966 3h 32m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 6h 19m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON