Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5924 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 5924 BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2395 BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5924 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 05:00	DEN 07:05	4%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 1782 United Flight history →	BOI 06:30	DEN 08:29	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 4747 Southwest	BOI 08:16	DEN 10:14	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1690 Southwest	BOI 12:31	DEN 14:29	11%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1139 United	BOI 10:30	DEN 12:38	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 173 Southwest	BOI 14:21	DEN 16:19	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2173 United Flight history →	BOI 14:41	DEN 16:40	19%	5%	0.5%	76%
UA 2395 United Flight history →	BOI 17:46	DEN 19:45	21%	5%	0.5%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON