Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1107 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day


AA 1107 American Flight history →	BOI 06:21	DFW 10:34	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 2019 American	BOI 13:45	DFW 18:01	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5924 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Denver	DEN 09:39 → DFW 12:43UA 1350	6h 43m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BOI 14:03 → ATL 20:19DL 874	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	9h 10m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 30m	99%	90%
American Details →	BOI 08:03 → PHX 09:31AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	6h 07m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808	53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:03 → DFW 12:29DL 2970	5h 59m	93%	87%
United Details →	BOI 08:25 → ORD 13:10UA 5386 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793	8h 57m	99%	87%
American Details →	BOI 13:59 → PHX 15:21AA 4080 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Phoenix	PHX 17:15 → DFW 21:52AA 2210	6h 53m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BOI 13:02 → SLC 14:27DL 2095	3h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	7h 21m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON