Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3400 BOI 07:24 → GEG 07:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2408 BOI 16:10 → GEG 16:34 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3400 SkyWest	BOI 07:24	GEG 07:49	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
QX 2480 Horizon	BOI 14:40	GEG 15:04	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 2137 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	BOI 20:36	GEG 21:00	12%	5%	0.8%	85%
QX 2408 Horizon	BOI 16:10	GEG 16:34	13%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON