Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 943 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–12%.

Safest bet that day WN 943 BOI 05:59 → LAS 06:55 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3121 BOI 13:23 → LAS 14:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 943 Southwest	BOI 05:59	LAS 06:55	1%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4908 Southwest	BOI 14:24	LAS 15:20	10%	3%	0.4%	no record
OO 3121 SkyWest	BOI 13:23	LAS 14:29	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 2087 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 16:15	LAS 17:12	16%	8%	3.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON