Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3116 at 11:44, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3116 Southwest	BOI 11:44	OAK 12:32	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon	3h 46m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	6h 54m	99%	97%
Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	100%	95%
Delta Details →	BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	BOI 11:00 → SLC 12:25DL 1744	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	6h 21m	99%	92%
Alaska Details →	BOI 08:04 → SEA 08:35AS 345	2h 26m Seattle	SEA 11:01 → OAK 13:03AS 533	5h 59m	99%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON