Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 782 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day AS 782 BOI 06:08 → PDX 06:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 740 BOI 13:34 → PDX 14:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 782 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 06:08	PDX 06:35	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
AS 3495 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:53	PDX 09:28	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AS 229 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 16:23	PDX 16:45	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 740 Alaska	BOI 13:34	PDX 14:01	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2184 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 09:13	PDX 09:34	6%	6%	3.8%	94%
AS 2209 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 13:29	PDX 13:47	6%	2%	0.0%	94%
AS 2118 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:28	PDX 20:46	24%	12%	0.0%	76%
AS 2371 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:28	PDX 20:46	31%	15%	0.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON