Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1021 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1021 BOI 07:03 → PHX 08:17 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4080 BOI 13:59 → PHX 15:21 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1021 Southwest	BOI 07:03	PHX 08:17	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3675 Envoy	BOI 06:37	PHX 07:57	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6439 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:03	PHX 09:31	11%	3%	0.5%	100%worse than usual
WN 1061 Southwest	BOI 15:44	PHX 16:58	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4080 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOI 13:59	PHX 15:21	16%	4%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON