Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 118 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day OO 118 BOI 06:43 → SEA 07:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 595 BOI 14:15 → SEA 14:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 118 SkyWest	BOI 06:43	SEA 07:23	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 739 Alaska	BOI 06:26	SEA 06:57	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3740 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:42	SEA 09:30	13%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 3750 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:35	SEA 11:26	13%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 4127 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 18:07	SEA 18:42	16%	5%	0.5%	83%
AS 345 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 08:04	SEA 08:35	17%	3%	0.6%	89%
OO 3916 SkyWest	BOI 15:21	SEA 16:01	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 183 SkyWest	BOI 12:10	SEA 12:50	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 565 Alaska	BOI 16:14	SEA 16:45	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 595 Alaska	BOI 14:15	SEA 14:46	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2070 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 08:15	SEA 08:50	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
AS 2159 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 11:42	SEA 12:16	19%	0%	0.0%	81%
AS 2352 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:47	SEA 21:21	40%	15%	2.0%	60%
AS 2166 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 10:00	SEA 10:34	56%	0%	0.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON