Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 4661 at 14:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 4661 BOI 14:00 → SFO 14:58 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time Riskiest UA 4639 BOI 08:15 → SFO 09:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4661 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 14:00	SFO 14:58	14%	6%	0.5%	48%
UA 743 United	BOI 18:43	SFO 19:32	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 3025 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:52	SFO 11:49	20%	8%	0.6%	60%
UA 4639 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:15	SFO 09:12	27%	11%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON