Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 400 BOI 07:44 → SMF 08:21 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2846 BOI 16:42 → SMF 17:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 400 Southwest	BOI 07:44	SMF 08:21	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
AS 2156 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	BOI 06:58	SMF 07:44	4%	2%	0.8%	94%
WN 2846 Southwest	BOI 16:42	SMF 17:19	11%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON