tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 1703 at 10:56, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1703 Alaska BOI 10:56 SNA 12:13 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BOI 08:03 → PHX 09:31AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Phoenix PHX 11:07 → SNA 12:44AA 1656 5h 41m 100% 88%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229 2h 53m Portland PDX 19:38 → SNA 22:03AS 413 6h 40m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 7h 21m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → SNA 11:50DL 1835 6h 50m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → BOI 08:15 → SFO 09:12UA 4639 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 12:27 → SNA 14:12UA 2441 6h 57m 99% 86%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon 3h 53m Portland PDX 17:40 → SNA 19:55AS 1425 7h 26m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOI 11:00 → SLC 12:25DL 1744 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 15:15 → SNA 16:09DL 1277 6h 09m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 08:53 → PDX 09:28AS 3495 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 5h 22m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45UA 2395 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 5h 15m 74% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON