Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9K 734 BOS 21:10 → ACK 22:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9K 87 BOS 15:35 → ACK 16:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9K 734 Cape Air	BOS 21:10	ACK 22:23	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
B6 2352 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:31	ACK 13:33	8%	3%	0.7%	86%
9K 615 Cape Air	BOS 08:44	ACK 10:00	8%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 92 Cape Air	BOS 10:09	ACK 11:21	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 1638 Cape Air	BOS 13:58	ACK 15:12	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 626 Cape Air	BOS 09:11	ACK 10:25	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 1271 Cape Air	BOS 09:36	ACK 10:51	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 87 Cape Air	BOS 15:35	ACK 16:48	10%	3%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON