Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, G4 243 at 10:29, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


G4 243 Allegiant	BOS 10:29	AVL 12:50	8%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:08DL 3059	5h 38m	100%	90%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 08:17 → AVL 11:16AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	6h 06m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → AVL 15:02DL 3099	7h 02m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 27m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:21 → LGA 08:33DL 5840 · flown by Republic	53m New York	LGA 09:26 → AVL 11:18DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor	3h 57m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:28 → AVL 21:38DL 3116	7h 43m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:10 → AVL 17:20DL 3101	7h 05m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:00 → LGA 13:21DL 5854 · flown by Republic	3h 16m New York	LGA 16:37 → AVL 18:29DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON